The world is watching the US elections, now just two weeks away, with great interest. Will Donald Trump, the 45th, make a comeback or will the US finally get its first lady president? The stakes are high here in New Delhi too, with observers now gauging the impact, both positive and negative, on the Indo-US ties taking into consideration the policies of the two leaders. People are curious who, out of the two, will be better for India.
Economics
Managing the economic ties with the US under a Trump presidency won’t be as smooth as it has been generally. Trump has several times labelled India as “an abuser” of import tariffs. Just earlier this month, Trump said “the biggest charger of all is India.”
“India is a very big charger. We have a great relationship with India. I did. And especially the leader, Modi. He’s a great leader. Great man. Really is a great man. He’s brought it together. He’s done a great job. But they probably charge as much,” he said.
Trump has vowed to introduce “reciprocal trade” policies if voted to power. This conservative approach to international trade may not bode very well for India’s exports to US, our largest trading partner. The US is the only country amongst India’s top 10 trading partners who we have a trade surplus with. We can’t afford to lose stable economic partnership with a nation that is a big source of foreign exchange.
On the other hand, Harris might also opt for some protectionist policies but she is largely expected to not go overboard. The Biden administration, for example, recently blocked a Japanese company, Nippon Steel, from acquiring US Steel on national security grounds. The deal worth $14.9bn was met with scepticism amid silent takeover concerns. It shows even Harris won’t give even one of the USA’s top allies a free pass and erect protectionist measures.
Technological advancement
Both Trump and Harris are expected to take confrontational approach with China, which is expected to benefit India. The Biden administration, for example, has taken steps to ensure the balance of technological power between India and China.
When PM Modi visited the US last month for the Quad summit, the two nations signed a deal to set up a semiconductor fabrication plant in India. The initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) between the US and India is another major example of this deepening partnership.
The deal, signed in May 2022, opened a broad spectrum in areas including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, space, 6G mobile tech and semiconductor supply chain.
Harris is expected to follow into Biden’s footsteps to further shift this balance of power towards India away from China.
Trump’s confrontationist approach is also set to benefit India as more and more nations will try to minimise operations risks by shifting out of China.
Trump has threatened he will impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports into the country. This is expected to trigger an exodus from China, potentially benefitting nations in Southeast Asia and India.
Diplomacy
Given the Narendra Modi government’s past experience of working with Trump and shared conservative values, New Delhi may prefer Trump in the White House as long as diplomacy and matters of international affairs are concerned.
Both Trump and Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) share ideologies grounded in nationalism, patriotism, and tradition. Some influential Indian nationalist thinkers have even drawn comparisons between their views and those of American conservatives, pointing to a shared ideological base. This overlap could create a more comfortable diplomatic atmosphere.
Additionally, both Modi and Trump see themselves as strong, decisive leaders, each capable of driving significant change. Trump’s admiration for firm leadership aligns with Modi’s style, hinting at a mutual understanding that could make collaboration smoother between the two nations.
At a time when tensions are running high between India and Canada, a close US ally; Delhi will like to put its money on Trump.
Immigration
Immigration remains on Trump’s top agenda. The GOP candidate has vowed to revive his hardline approach and take decisive and forceful action against illegal immigration, suggesting it would result in a “bloody story.”
He may even look to restrict H1B visas by requiring additional biometrics, delayed processing times, and wage mandates. This is going to impact Indians big time.
On the other hand, Harris is expected to favour more open immigration policies, including greater protection for undocumented immigrants and a better system for recruiting and retaining global talent.
Conclusion
It’s important to note that irrespective of who wins the Nov 5 polls, India-US ties enjoy overwhelming bipartisan support in Washington DC. It means that both major parties in the US support deepening of the strategic ties between the two powers. As a developing power, New Delhi will look to co-operate and promote stability with the government in power.
