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Monday, December 23, 2024

Why Bitcoin could hit $80K after the election, according to Travis Kling


As Bitcoin retreats from a new run at all-time highs, crypto markets are swirling with speculation around memecoins, AI agents, and Wall Street’s increasing involvement with Bitcoin ETFs.

To break down these trends, Coinage caught up with Travis Kling, founder of Ikigai Asset Management, for his take on where the market is headed and what investors should watch for in the last couple of weeks leading into election season.

“It’s definitely all eyes on the election,” Kling said, pointing to the uncertainty gripping both traditional and crypto markets. “If Trump wins, Bitcoin could shoot to the low $80,000s very quickly, but if Kamala Harris wins, we might see a dip down to the high $40,000s.” The market’s current position, he suggests, is almost like hedging for both outcomes, with Bitcoin trading around a fair value that splits the difference between these two possibilities.

“It would be my base case that there will be a a meaningful dip in Bitcoin’s price if Harris wins, but I don’t know if it’s going to be all that deep or all that long,” Kling said. Most analysts believe that any short-term volatility will likely evaporate — and other congressional races may arguably be even more important. As Politico reported this week, Congress is likely to be the most pro-crypto it has ever been regardless of who wins the presidency.

But beyond the election, one of the hottest topics is the rise of memecoins. These tokens have captured the crypto community’s attention, with some arguing that they are reshaping how digital communities form and thrive. Kling sees this phenomenon as part of a larger shift away from overhyped altcoins that have failed to deliver real use cases. “The rise of memecoin mania, in my view, is a direct response to the lack of significant traction for all use cases, excluding stablecoins,” he explained. “Bitcoin has product-market fit, stablecoins have product-market fit, and everything else is, you know, a solution looking for a problem at best.”

Kling points to the incentive structure in the crypto venture capital space as a major issue, describing it as a “big problem” for the altcoin market. “In traditional venture capital, your winners make up for the losers. But in crypto, you’ve got VCs making 25 times their money on projects that didn’t do anything.” Memecoins, according to Kling, are siphoning attention away from these faltering projects and forcing the market to confront this misalignment.

While memecoins and AI might seem like the wild west, Wall Street’s increasing presence in crypto through ETFs and options is another key development Kling is tracking.



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