Ethereum faces pressing questions over its direction as a rejigged user experience saps activity and fees, stoking uncertainty about whether the blockchain will continue to underpin commerce in crypto. Critics point to a growing reliance on so-called Layer-2 blockchains, built on top of Ethereum to improve otherwise clunky and costly transactions. Layer-2 operators like Arbitrum and Optimism have reaped the rewards. Since March, Layer-2 transactions are up 430%, while fees collected by Ethereum have fallen 87% in the same period, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The performance of Ethereum’s token, Ether, underscores the muddy outlook. It’s up about 75% in the past year, a period when Bitcoin more than doubled. Bitcoin lately also scaled record highs atop president-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of digital assets, whereas Ether remains far from all-time peaks.
“The layer-2 road map shipped without careful examination of the economics,” said Max Resnick, head of research at Special Mechanisms Group, which is owned by Ethereum developer Consensys Systems. “It’s clearly a concern.”
‘World Computer’
Founded over a decade ago with the aim of creating a “world computer,” Ethereum made it easier to build blockchain-based applications, turbo-charging the decentralized finance — or DeFi — ecosystem where people trade, lend and borrow digital assets peer-to-peer using automated software.
The network supports over $72 billion in tokens locked in DeFi apps, as well as over $100 billion of the nearly $190 billion stablecoin market, according to data from DefiLlama. But what has long been considered a dominant position is perhaps for the first time under threat.
While the blockchain has “ceded some pricing power” in the short term, it has done so to allow “all the Layer-2s to establish themselves and grow and flourish,” said Consensys Chief Executive Officer Joseph Lubin.
In the US exchange-traded fund sector, Ether products have received a tepid reception, recording a net inflow of $242 million compared with a $31 billion flood into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Growing Supply
Since the blockchain’s “Dencun” upgrade in March, Ether supply has turned inflationary: the number of tokens in circulation is rising. An earlier upgrade, “The Merge” in 2022, was supposed to prevent that and lure investors.
The loss of fees to Layer-2 platforms has exacerbated the situation, because the supply of Ether is kept in check through the permanent removal of tokens representing a portion of transaction fees.
There is now a live debate about whether bringing Layer-2s into the fold was the right path for Ethereum.
“Nobody understands the road map except for like a cabal of people and they’re not really doing a great job of telegraphing the view in a simplistic manner,” said Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of crypto hedge fund Split Capital.
Proponents had hoped Layer-2s would be a net positive for Ethereum, but the overall benefit to the network “is now less clear than it was initially,” Strahinja Savic, head of data and analytics at FRNT Financial, wrote in a note.
Ethereum is dying. All the major projects are moving to their own blockchains. Uniswap, Polymarket, and now ENS — they all use the EVM technology, but not Ethereum itself. There’s no need for Ethereum anymore. Not scaling L1 was a fatal mistake. https://t.co/I2NxfqcUi1
— Nikita Zhavoronkov (@nikzh) November 11, 2024
Rival Networks
Ether suffers from middle-child syndrome, in that it’s under-performing Bitcoin, but is still large enough that only a notable uptick in institutional inflows would move the needle on price, Split Capital’s Ebtikar said. Ether currently has a market capitalization of about $400 billion.
Capital is flowing to rival networks like Solana, which after Ethereum supports the most assets locked on DeFi applications, DefiLlama data shows. Solana’s token is up 300% in the past 12 months.
More affordable networks such as Solana appear to be catching up to Ethereum in terms of their appeal for users, said Eliezer Ndinga, VP-Head of Strategy and Business Development at 21.co.
One key figure whose conviction is unshaken is Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Buterin said many Layer-2 teams have expressed an interest “in finding ways to be more collaborative and supportive of the Ethereum ecosystem.” Those ancillary networks are deeply integrated with Ethereum’s community, he added.
Resnick at Special Mechanisms Group struck a different tone, arguing that for the first time in its history, Ethereum is in “the danger zone” in that it faces a genuine rival in Solana. Ethereum must focus on scaling “in order to preserve its users and moat in the short-term,” Resnick said.
© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.