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Monday, December 23, 2024

Bond Traders Make Risky Bets on Neutral Rate ‘No One Knows’


On Wall Street’s bond desks, everyone, it seems, has an opinion on the neutral rate. It’s 3.3%. No, it’s 4.5%. Actually, it’s 2.4%. And on and on, all day long, five days a week.

The truth is, as the bond veteran Greg Peters puts it, “no one knows what neutral is.”



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