A new study titled ‘Unauthorized Indians in the United States: Trends and Developments’ highlights the complex dynamics of illegal Indian immigration to the US, revealing sharp differences between Gujaratis and Punjabis.
The research, conducted by Abby Budiman, a PhD candidate, and Devesh Kapur, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, identifies significant disparities in asylum outcomes based on regional origin.
As mentioned in the study, according to data from the 2019-2022 American Community Survey (ACS) — covering all foreign-born Indians in the US — Gujaratis report higher average income compared to Punjabis. However, Punjabis have significantly better chances of securing asylum. This disparity, researchers suggest, reflects the economic backgrounds of these immigrants and the narratives they present to US authorities. The study reveals that the average personal earnings of Gujaratis in the US stood at $58,000, compared to $48,000 for Punjabis.
However, Gujarati speakers still record the second lowest personal earnings after Punjabi speakers. “This is because compared to speakers of other Indian languages, the shares among them who are unauthorised are likely higher. And so, there are more individuals who are excluded from higher earning professions or industries.
Previous research by Dr Kapur has also shown that compared to Punjabis (overall; not just those who are unauthorised) in the US, Gujaratis have relatively higher levels of education,” said Budiman in an email response to TOI.
However, she adds that because data on the spoken language of “unauthorised” immigrants is not available, it cannot be known for certain why Gujarati speakers make more than Punjabi speakers on average.
The cost of illegal immigration
The study notes that a vast majority of asylum seekers are economic immigrants facing limited economic opportunities at home.
“Even illegality takes money,” the study mentions, whether via the difficult route through Latin America and Mexico, or by posing as international students entering Canada. These costs range from 30 to 100 times India’s per capita income, making such journeys feasible only for those who possess assets that can be pledged or sold, particularly land. The research points out that Punjab and Gujarat, the top origin states for illegal Indian immigrants, rank among India’s more prosperous regions, with land values significantly exceeding the economic returns from agricultural activities.
Understanding the disparity
The study notes that among Indian asylum seekers in US immigration courts, Punjabi speakers consistently formed the largest group, making up 66% of all Indian asylum cases between 2001 and 2022. Gujaratis, on the other hand, accounted for only 7% of the cases in the same period.
The reasons for this disparity are rooted both in economic conditions in India and how the system responds to different im-migrant narratives.
The US asylum law is designed to protect individuals facing persecution, not economic hardship.
This legal mismatch leaves Gujarati immigrants at a disadvantage when seeking legal status through asylum.
Do Punjabis have a political edge?
The study also reveals that Punjabis’ asylum success rate stands at 63%, significantly higher than the 25% success rate for Gujaratis. This, researchers argue, stems from Punjabis’ ability to frame their migration as politically motivated, often citing fears of persecution related to Khalistani separatism and tensions with the Indian state.
“Data collected through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) indicate that Punjabi speakers have consistently represented the largest group among Indian immigrants involved in asylum claims since 2001. Between FY 2001 and 2022, two thirds (66%) of asylum cases involving Indian nationals were filed by Punjabi speakers,” the study states. Following Punjabi, the other common languages spoken by Indian asylum requesters were Hindi (14%), English (8%), and Gujarati (7%) during the same time period.
“According to TRAC data, 63% of cases involving Punjabi speakers were granted asylum. Similarly, a majority of cases (58%) involving Hindi speakers also saw approval. In contrast, only 25% of cases involving Gujarati speakers were approved,” the study says.
“Ham-handed policies by the Indian govt targeting Khalistani activists in the West gave further credence to those from Punjab alleging persecution by Indian authorities,” the study observes. This allows Punjabi immigrants to fit more neatly into the asylum criteria of ‘credible fear,’ compared to Gujaratis, whose primary motivation is economic advancement.
However, without strong asylum claims, the options available to Gujaratis for regularising their status are limited. This legal precarity contrasts sharply with their financial stability.
What the change of guard means
The study also tracks a dramatic rise in overall Indian asylum claims in the US, from 5,000 in 2021 to over 51,000 in 2023. This surge aligns with a spike in Indian border apprehensions, which grew from 1,000 in 2020 to 43,000 in 2023.
With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the situation for unauthorised Indian immigrants, especially those seeking asylum, is expected to worsen. Trump’s administration immediately shut down the CBP One app — a key mechanism for asylum seekers to schedule hear- ings — effectively cancelling nearly 300,000 pending appointments, according to the study.
Gujaratis in limbo
As US authorities tighten enforcement under Trump’s hardline immigration stance, the study predicts that “the number of unauthorised Indian immigrants is likely to decline sharply — and even more so from Gujarat.”
This marks a dramatic shift for a community long associated with successful, lawful immigration to the US.
In contrast, the entrenched narrative of Punjabi persecution — whether real or exaggerated — is likely to preserve some avenues of protection, even under tougher immigration policies. The story of Indian migration to the US, the study concludes, is no longer just about skilled professionals on H-1B visas. Instead, it is increasingly shaped by these complex intersections of region, economic class and asylum politics.
The drivers of migration are rooted in both the sending and receiving countries, in this case India and in the US. Both Gujarat and Punjab have a tradition of seeking better lives overseas, with large number of immigrants going to the UK and US, as well as Canada and Australia.
According to the study, India received an estimated $120 billion in remittances in 2023, with the visible impact of this overseas income evident in more opulent homes. This display of prosperity encourages others to migrate not to escape poverty, but rather ‘relative deprivation’, fearing limited economic prospects in India.
At the same time, an entire industry of agents and brokers facilitating this illegal immigration sprang up in India. India’s home ministry looked the other way since this issue, likely because illegal immigration is much more a burden for receiving than sending countries, according to the study.