Extreme weather events come in a range of intensities from the ordinary to the unprecedented covering extreme heatwaves, dam breaches and floods, hurricanes and cyclones. The unprecedented events having devastating consequences worldwide. Examples include the 2017 Hurricanes Irma and Maria that destroyed 95% of buildings on Sint Maarten/Saint Martin and caused over 4,600 deaths in Puerto Rico; the Horn of Africa’s five consecutive failed rainy seasons leaving millions needing humanitarian aid; Nepal’s unexpected 2021 off-season floods that killed over 120 people; and the Pacific Northwest’s record-shattering 2021 heatwave that reached 49.6°C resulting in over 850 deaths. These unprecedented events share a common thread of devastating human impact.
Tracks of North Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2019 (Credit : Niilfanion)
Progress in climate science is increasingly helping us to anticipate “unprecedented weather” events despite common media stories emphasising their surprise nature. A paper authored by a team led by Timo Kelder from the Institute for Environmental Studies argues that we can avoid being caught unprepared and minimise their impact through proper preparation. The team provide an overview of extreme weather analysis approaches and demonstrates how this can inform disaster management and climate adaptation strategies to build resilience against extreme weather events.
The team provides four approaches to identify unprecedented weather: conventional methods using weather measurements, past events analysis using historical records and proxy data, event based storylines combining modelling with expert judgment and physics based weather and climate model exploration. These approaches have evolved from established measurement techniques to more sophisticated modelling systems, suitable to the unprecedented weather analysis problem.
The team articulate their ‘adaptation pyramid framework’ to manage unprecedented events covering three key steps; reactive (short term disaster response), incremental (long term prevention), and transformative strategies that build foundational resilience. Improved methods for identifying unprecedented weather events, such as those listed above can help shape our response plans. Future implementations of the model should also ensure scientific knowledge and approaches should embrace indigenous and local knowledge. Successful uptake requires adequate human resources and financial capacity, along with appropriate technologies and instruments to make solutions that are relevant and culturally appropriate.
The approach does not in itself tackle unprecedented weather but instead, leverages existing drivers from global goals like the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. It is of crucial importance that scientists and policymakers address the enabling conditions and barriers to change that will enable proper execution of plans to deal with the extreme weather events. Correctly setting the framework as proposed by the team can avoid being surprised by unprecedented weather and ensure that it does not cause human devastation in its aftermath.
Source : How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather