NEW DELHI: With only two days between voting and results, debates over exit polls heated-up as two more surveys were released on Thursday, echoing earlier predictions. Aam Aadmi Party, however, dismissed all projections, arguing that pollsters have “historically” underestimated its performance.
Most exit polls were released on Wednesday shortly after voting concluded in Delhi. They largely predicted a BJP comeback in the capital after 27 years, dealing a major setback to AAP, which has ruled for over a decade and remains a strong political force.
AAP national spokesperson Reena Gupta cited past election trends, emphasising that exit polls had misjudged the party’s success in 2013, 2015, and 2020. “Every time, AAP was predicted to win fewer seats than it actually did,” she said. Senior leader Sanjay Singh went further, ridiculing the projections as “surveys by massage and spa companies.”
Kejriwal said in his post on X: “These predictions are meant to shape political sentiment and weaken our party by causing defections.”
Moreover, majority of pollsters have missed the mark in recent elections, including the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and state assembly elections in Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra.
Exit poll track record: A look back
2013: Underestimating AAP’s rise
Exit polls in 2013 largely favoured the BJP, predicting an average of 35 seats—just short of a majority—while forecasting 17 each for AAP and Congress.
The actual results, however, saw AAP win 28 seats, BJP 32, and Congress just 8.
The closest prediction came from Today’s Chanakya, which estimated AAP would win 31 seats. The party, propelled by the India Against Corruption movement, formed a short-lived government with Congress support before resigning over the Jan Lokpal Bill after 48-days of assuming power.
2015: A landslide that no poll saw coming
Six exit polls in 2015 forecast an AAP victory but failed to grasp its scale. While the average prediction gave AAP 45 seats, the party stunned observers by winning 67.
BJP was left with just 3, and Congress exited with no legislators in the assembly.
The highest estimate for AAP came from Axis My India at 53 seats, while India TV-CVoter predicted only 39. Most polls also overestimated BJP’s chances, with many projecting over 20 seats.
2020: Polls more accurate, but still off the mark
By 2020, exit polls were more aligned with AAP’s dominance but still fell short of the final numbers. On average, they predicted 52 seats for AAP and 17 for BJP, while the actual results saw AAP win 62 and BJP secure 8. Congress, once again, failed to win a single seat.
India Today-Axis My India provided the closest estimate, forecasting 59-68 seats for AAP. Meanwhile, Sudarshan News gave BJP its highest projected tally at 24-28 seats, though the party ultimately fell far below that mark.
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