(Bloomberg) — Gold has scope to push higher next year, likely hitting a record, as the Federal Reserve cuts rates and central banks add bullion to reserves, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.
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The precious metal may struggle in the first quarter of 2025 due to a strengthening US dollar, but it stands to extend gains after that, analysts including Marcus Garvey said in a note in which they raised price forecasts. It could “quickly challenge” $3,000 an ounce if Chinese demand picks up, or if President-elect Donald Trump’s policies risk a deterioration in the US fiscal outlook, they said.
Gold has been one of the strongest performing commodities this year, rallying 28% and hitting a series of records. The advance has been underpinned by central bank buying, the Fed’s pivot to lower rates, and a rebound in holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Group AG have made the case for further gains next year.
ETF holdings are still “25% below their 2020 high, suggesting plenty of scope” for more purchases if conditions justify it, the Macquarie analysts said. “In this case we view falling interest rates as key, by way of reducing the appeal of money-market funds and other savings products.”
Prices are set to average $2,650 an ounce in the first quarter of 2025, Macquarie said, up 1.9% from an earlier forecast. They will average $2,800 from April through June, 12% higher than the last estimate, after which the metal may lose some of its allure. Spot gold was last at about $2,649.
(Updates spot price in final paragraph.)
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