India GDP Growth 2024 Live: Why did the GDP growth slow?
“India’s GDP growth in Q2 stood at 5.4%, falling below our projection of 6.7% and the street’s estimate of 6.5%. This weakness in the numbers was largely due to discrepancies; net of these, GDP growth remained at a healthy 7.5%. On the production side, weaker growth was observed in the industrial segment, while the services sector, where we had expected 8% growth, recorded a healthy but slightly lower expansion of 7.1%. Agriculture, on the other hand, expanded at a strong pace, as reflected in the advanced estimates for Kharif output. While we are not revising our full-year growth projection of 7% thus implying a 7.9% growth in H2, we will closely monitor the momentum going forward. We believe that growth in the second half (H2) will be driven by continued strength in agriculture, which is expected to boost rural demand further and increase in capital expenditure (capex) from both central and state governments . Additionally, moderation in the industrial sector’s base should support stronger growth, especially with the complete monsoon season. However, certain headwinds could impact our outlook. Risks include the potential impact of Chinese imports (“China dumping”) and policy uncertainties following the US elections, both of which could dampen a revival in private sector investment,” says Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.