May’s Consumer Price Index report is expected to show the first real impact of import tariffs on American shoppers. While overall inflation stayed modest at 0.2% monthly growth, core inflation (excluding food and energy) is projected to jump 0.3% – the biggest increase in four months.
The timing tells the story: retailers had been selling pre-tariff inventory through April, but May marks when those cheaper goods ran out. Major retailers like Walmart have already announced price hikes, with economists warning this is just the beginning of tariff-driven inflation that could last through year-end.
The data comes as the Bureau of Labor Statistics faces severe staffing shortages, forcing it to suspend data collection in three cities. However, experts say the national numbers remain reliable. The Federal Reserve will analyze these inflation signals at its upcoming meeting, though interest rates are expected to stay unchanged for now.