President Trump is intensifying efforts to bring an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine—a war now entering its third year.
This past week, Trump publicly expressed deep frustration with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In a recent interview, he sharply criticized Putin for questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy. At the same time, he warned Zelenskyy against backing out of a critical rare earth minerals deal with the United States, implying that such moves could threaten the broader diplomatic process.
Despite these tensions, talks are ongoing. The U.S. has proposed a 30-day ceasefire, starting with energy and infrastructure sectors. Some limited agreements have been reached—especially on maritime activity and energy—but enforcement has already been shaky.
The Kremlin has called the entire peace process “drawn-out.” Is this proving to be a long, difficult negotiation?
One of the most closely watched elements of U.S. strategy comes from retired General Keith Kellogg, now serving as Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine. Though it’s unclear whether the White House is officially following his roadmap, Kellogg outlined a three-step approach:
First, pressure Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire.
Second, if Putin refuses to engage, apply tough sanctions.
And third, if diplomacy fails—infuse Ukraine with military support to change the calculus on the ground.
Kellogg initially gave himself 100 days to find a solution. By February, he extended that deadline to 180. But in recent weeks, the negotiations have shifted to other senior figures—Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Special Envoy for Russia Steve Witkoff—each taking a more active role in shaping the outcome.
And now, the clock is ticking. Several target dates are circulating inside the administration.
One is April 20th—Easter Sunday—a symbolic deadline reportedly communicated to European leaders. Another is April 29th, the end of Trump’s first 100 days back in office. And a third is May 9th, Victory Day in Russia. There’s speculation that Putin is pushing for that date to mark the war’s end in a way that would resonate with the Russian public.
Adding to the complexity is China’s involvement. Just days ago, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Moscow to discuss the U.S. ceasefire proposal, signaling that Beijing is closely watching—and may be trying to influence—the path forward.
Still, the most difficult issues remain unresolved: Russia has so far refused to halt strikes on Ukrainian cities, claiming its negotiators lack the mandate. And the future of the front lines—the actual territorial boundaries—hasn’t even been formally discussed.
There’s a growing concern that the more the U.S. ties itself to fixed deadlines, the more leverage it gives away.
So the question is: what happens next?
Will Trump move to the third phase of Kellogg’s plan and significantly ramp up arms to Ukraine? Or will the current negotiations—however fragile—somehow hold?
What’s clear is this: the next few weeks could reshape not only the future of Ukraine, but the entire post-war security order in Europe. End