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Friday, December 6, 2024

US Treasuries Rally on Bets Bessent Will Soften Trump’s Plans


(Bloomberg) — US Treasuries have added to the gains spurred by the late-Friday announcement of Scott Bessent — a Wall Street veteran who investors expect will take the sting out of the administration’s more aggressive trade and economic policy proposals — as President-elect Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary choice.

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Monday’s rally trimmed yields by more than 10 basis points across five- to 30-year maturities, gaining momentum in early New York trading amid a drop in oil. The dollar slumped by the most in more than two weeks.

“Bessent is viewed as a potentially moderating influence on the incoming administration’s policies,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Scotiabank. “Favoring gradualism on tariffs, for example.”

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Bessent, who runs macro hedge fund Key Square Group, has called for a gradual approach to implementing trade restrictions and has appeared open to negotiating the exact size of tariffs championed by the president-elect. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Bessent said his priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax cut pledges, while also cutting spending and “maintaining the status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.”

The dollar had notched its longest stretch of weekly advances in more than a year on Friday as the prospect of an all-out global trade war weighed on currencies across the world. Trump has threatened to hit Chinese shipments with a 60% tariff and impose a 10% levy tariff on goods from all other countries.

Bessent’s nomination, which needs to be confirmed by the US Senate before he takes the job, is at odds with Trump’s choices of a series of unorthodox candidates and absolute loyalists for other key positions. Other prominent contenders included former Federal Reserve board member Kevin Warsh and Trump transition co-chair Howard Lutnick, who had the support of Elon Musk.

“The Bessent selection certainty doesn’t fully negate the potential fallout from a renewed focus on trade wars and tariffs, although by eliminating some of the more extreme scenarios, the market has surely derived a degree of comfort in the outlook for the bond market,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.



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