Thursday’s inflation report is expected to show Consumer Price Index growth of 2.5% for March, down from February’s 2.8%, marking the lowest rate since September. This decline, driven by falling energy prices, suggests post-pandemic inflation continues to fade.
However, economists warn this improvement may be temporary due to President Trump’s recent tariff announcements. The March implementation of tariffs on Chinese goods may already be affecting prices, with additional tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum, and various imports scheduled to begin in April. UBS forecasters predict inflation could reach 5% if the tariffs remain in full force, though many analysts expect negotiations will result in less severe measures than initially announced.