President Trump’s revival of his maximum pressure campaign against Iran’s oil exports has met a muted market response, highlighting significant changes in global oil dynamics since his first term.
While Iranian exports dropped to 150,000 bpd in 2020 under Trump’s previous sanctions, they’ve rebounded to 1.6 million bpd during Biden’s presidency, primarily through sales to Chinese teapot refineries using a sophisticated sanctions-evasion network of 470 ghost tankers.
The market’s calm reaction reflects several factors: OPEC+’s ability to offset potential Iranian supply losses, record U.S. production exceeding 13 million bpd, and overall slack in global markets. While StoneX analysts predict sanctions could displace around 400,000 bpd of Iranian exports, Trump’s success will largely depend on his administration’s willingness to pressure China and target the shadow fleet’s support infrastructure.